World merchandise trade grew faster than expected in the first quarter of 2026 as demand for components used in artificial intelligence outweighed the early economic effects of conflict and shipping disruption in the Middle East.
Seasonally adjusted trade volume rose 1.9 per cent from the previous quarter and 3.2 per cent from a year earlier, according to WTO and UNCTAD data. In dollar terms, trade increased 2 per cent quarter-on-quarter and 11 per cent year-on-year.
Technology demand offsets regional shock
The value of trade in AI-enabling goods climbed more than 40 per cent from a year earlier. Office and telecom equipment recorded the strongest product growth at 44 per cent, while ores and other minerals rose 27 per cent.
Asia led the expansion, with export and import volumes up 12.9 per cent and 14.6 per cent year-on-year. The movement of AI-related components within the region was a major driver. North American exports rose 7 per cent, while imports fell sharply against an unusually high comparison period in early 2025.
Middle Eastern export and import volumes declined 9.7 per cent and 11.9 per cent. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz began late in the quarter, meaning its full impact is expected to appear in later data. March estimates showed steep declines in imports of regional crude oil, liquefied natural gas and fertiliser.
The WTO’s baseline forecast remains 1.9 per cent merchandise-trade growth for 2026. Economists say the final outcome will depend on whether continued AI investment can outweigh energy costs and shipping disruption, with an updated forecast due in October.